Oʻahu July Numbers: What They Actually Mean
You're going to hear that Oʻahu home prices jumped 13.9% last month. Here's why that's misleading and what really happened.
The 13.9% isn't what it sounds like
The "median price" is just the middle sale. Line up all 300 homes that sold in July, cheapest to most expensive, and grab the one in the middle. That was $1,224,500.
But that number moves when different kinds of homes sell, not just when homes gain value.
In July, a lot more expensive homes sold than usual. Sales over $2 million nearly doubled. Sales between $1.3M and $2M were up 77%. More big sales pulls the middle number up, even if nobody's house actually gained a dime.
The proof: look at the whole year instead of one month, and the median is up 3.0%, not 13.9%.
So if someone tells you your home went up 14% this year, that's not what the data says.
Two very different markets right now
Houses are tight. Only 3.2 months of homes available. The typical house went under contract in 14 days and sold for 100% of what the seller first asked. A third sold for more than asking.
Condos are slow. 7 months of supply, more than double. The typical condo took 38 days and sold for about 96.6% of the original asking price.
Same island, opposite markets.
Why condos are the slower one
It's not the price. A $504,500 condo sounds easier to buy than a $1.2M house.
It's the monthly fee.
When a lender decides how much you can borrow, they count your maintenance fee just like your mortgage payment. It's not a side cost, it eats directly into your loan approval.
Rough math: every $100/month in fees costs you about $15,000 in buying power. A condo with a $900 fee can wipe out over $130,000 of what you'd otherwise qualify for.
That's why condos sit longer. Buyers want them. The monthly costs shrink who can actually get approved.
The warning sign nobody's talking about
Sales that closed in July came from deals signed back in May and June. That's old news.
The number that shows what's happening right now is pending sales: deals signed this month.
- Condo sales that closed: up 6.9%
- Condo deals signed: down 16.3%
One looks backward and looks good. The other looks forward and doesn't. Watch September.
And here's the part that gets buried
The million-dollar headline makes people assume they're locked out. Not true:
- 33% of houses that sold in July closed under $1 million
- 49% of condos closed under $500,000
A third of houses and half of condos are trading below the numbers you see in the headlines. That inventory is out there; it just doesn't make the news.
Mortgage rates averaged 6.66% at the end of July.
What to do about it
Buying a house? Get fully approved before you shop. At 14 days, "let me call my lender Monday" loses you the house.
Selling a house? Price it right and the market comes to you. Price it high and you sit while everyone else sells.
Buying a condo? You've got real negotiating room. But check the building, not just the unit: fees, reserves, insurance, and any upcoming assessments. A cheap condo with a huge fee isn't cheap.
Selling a condo? Your first price is the one that counts. Get it right, and plan on about six weeks.
The island-wide numbers describe a market nobody actually lives in. Your neighborhood and your price range are the ones that matter. Happy to pull those for you.
Jo Aparicio-Cuevas, REALTOR® (S), RS-88718 Tongg+Partners | Keller Williams Honolulu 808-500-7515 | apariciojovanny61@gmail.com | @joaparicio_re
Figures reflect July 2026 residential resales on Oʻahu and exclude new development sales. SOURCE: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®, residential resales data compiled from HiCentral MLS, Ltd.® ©2026 Honolulu Board of REALTORS®. All Rights Reserved. Information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Mortgage rate per Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Statistics describe the market as a whole and are not a prediction of value for any individual property. Equal Housing Opportunity.